Trump's occurrences provide the perfect distraction from the internal roots of Mexico's own economic weaknesses. Is it an exaggeration to say that Claudia Sheinbaum is the most powerful woman on Earth right now? There is more than a little bravado: the reality is that these tariff threats could not come at a worse time for Mexico, with the economy contracting, the fiscal deficit reaching levels not seen in decades, and investor confidence crumbling. But politically speaking, Sheinbaum continues to run an unstoppable machine, and her ambitious statist project will not be derailed under the weight of Trump's threats.
Claudia Sheinbaum is all smiles. It may sound strange, but the Mexican president announced on Tuesday her plans for retaliation against Donald Trump's trade tariffs with a big smile on her face. As much as this equally hurts Mexico, it would depend on the White House and the Republican Party to pick up the pieces from job losses, additional inflation, and potential defeats in the midterm elections.
What is unfair are her distorted justifications for what amounts to intimidation and economic negligence: no one is forcing Americans to use fentanyl or to recruit and hire undocumented workers. Nevertheless, if Trump is serious about dismantling the trade agreements that have propped up North America for the last three decades, it is unlikely that Mexico will sit passively across the border.
Trump may not grasp the irony that a leftist, nationalist, and populist movement like Sheinbaum's fights to defend its economic integration with the neighboring empire, even sacrificing some of its sacrosanct socialist ideologies along the way. Additionally, Trump will also have to deal with the consequences of destabilizing the U.S. economy by reducing cooperation, which could trigger new migration flows and increasing insecurity. As the rhetorical tone rises, Sheinbaum is leaving room for negotiations.
She is even willing to throw China overboard in the name of North American integration. For his part, Trump has every right to dismantle the treaty between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada after following the established rules for such a decision, even if he was the one who proudly signed this agreement six years ago. As a supplier of food and agricultural products to an approach to China, if by then Trump's tariffs remain in effect. Do not get me wrong, this is not a mutual benefit for the Mexican government: the asymmetric bilateral economic relationship means that Mexico has much more to lose from a bitter divorce with the U.S., starting with a detrimental recession this year.
Compared to his counterpart in Washington, Sheinbaum has much more political weight and time (Mexico's midterm elections will not be held until 2027 and her term extends until the end of 2030) to withstand adversity. Just talk to her most ardent detractors in Mexico City to keep finding respect for her patient and policy-focused approach when dealing with this belligerent and volatile version of the White House. In fact, this conflict finds the Mexican presidency in its strongest relative position in decades.
But if the isolationist impulses of the U.S. prevail in the end, Sheinbaum will move forward —wrapped in a Mexican flag, with no opposition— with her grand political project. Imagine what Trump or any other world leader would do with an 85% approval rating, a supermajority in Congress, allies governing most of Mexico's 32 states, no significant opposition, and an incoming reorganization of the judicial system that will ensure friendly courts throughout the country. It may not fit the prevailing spirit of Washington these days, but the sooner the Trump administration sees Mexico as part of the solution and not as the problem, the better their prospects will be.
Her efforts to tighten the screws on drug traffickers and reduce migration flows at the border, along with the goodwill shown in negotiations with Washington in recent weeks, confirm that she is serious about reaching an agreement. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick's statements that the Trump administration could announce a way for tariff relief on Mexican and Canadian products point in that direction. If Sheinbaum is feeling the pressure of an atomic bomb looming over the Mexican economy, it simply does not show. Why? Because the tariff tango she is dancing with Trump has proven to be a blessing for Sheinbaum's popularity: a remarkable 85% of Mexicans approve of how the country's first president is handling her affairs, compared to 70% in October, according to a poll conducted this week by El Financiero.
Markets breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday night. At the same time, Sheinbaum seems to be preparing the Mexican public for the worst by linking the current situation with the pain of the pandemic, when the second-largest economy in Latin America collapsed: 'We were able to rise again,' she said. Sheinbaum is working to make the tariff issue disappear and establish clear trading rules with the U.S. Let's hope that selective tariffs on goods such as bourbon, oranges, tomatoes, and motorcycles produced in Republican states maximize the pain among Trump voters. And she will do it with a smile on her face.
Do not be surprised if after the scheduled call on Thursday between both leaders, this farce ends up being suspended again. Businesspeople on both sides of the border have known this for years. Two neighbors sharing a 3,200-kilometer border and complex problems that escape the control of either of them are doomed to reach some kind of agreement. To start, she is preparing a massive rally in the Zócalo square of Mexico City on Sunday, where she plans to announce retaliatory measures amid frenzied applause from the masses: an orchestrated official version of 'Gringo go home.' More vigorous measures are likely to be forthcoming, starting with replacing the U.S. as soon as possible.
